SOURCE: TrueCar
TrueCar Forecasts October 2009 Auto Sales
New Vehicle Sales Up Slightly From September, but Still Weak
SANTA MONICA, CA--(Marketwire - October 22, 2009) - TrueCar (www.truecar.com), the authority on new car pricing, reported today that October 2009 light vehicle sales (including fleet) in U.S. will be 784,897 units, down 5.9% from October 2008 but up 4.6% from September 2009. October's forecast translates into a SAAR level of 9.8 million units.
"We started seeing the dust settle in the post Cash-for-Clunkers world this month," said Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Industry Trends at TrueCar. "Most auto makers will likely take this opportunity to realign their production, pricing and incentives strategies with the new realities of the marketplace. Value Pricing Strategy will experience resurgence in 2010, where the automakers aim to come up with more realistic sticker prices that are closer to actual transaction prices while lowering their incentives spending."
"While the automotive market slowly begins to stabilize, dealers will start to see how consumer decision making has changed," said Scott Painter, CEO of TrueCar. ""Purchasing habits will begin to reflect a new paradigm of educated consumers who will demand transparency in pricing and trade practices, and dealers will actually benefit when they adapt."
TrueCar offers a comprehensive forecast that also goes deeper into the numbers, looking at unit sales and market share by manufacturer, but also shows market share by origin and sales down to the brand level.
Forecasts for the top six major manufacturers for October:
Unit Sales Forecast
Manufacturer Oct. 2009 Change vs. Change vs.
Forecast Sept. 2009 Oct. 2008
Chrysler 62,975 1% -33%
Ford 120,946 10% -3%
GM 159,550 2% -4%
Honda 86,407 12% 1%
Nissan 54,379 -2% -5%
Toyota 136,865 6% -10%
Market Share Forecast
Manufacturer October 2009 September October
Forecast 2009 2008
Chrysler 8.00% 8.30% 11.30%
Ford 15.40% 14.60% 15.00%
GM 20.30% 20.80% 20.00%
Honda 11.00% 10.30% 10.30%
Nissan 6.90% 7.40% 6.80%
Toyota 17.40% 17.30% 18.20%
Market share forecasts for the origin of the manufacturer for October:
Manufacturer Oct. 2009 September October
Forecast 2009 2008
Europe 9.10% 9.50% 9.20%
Japan 40.30% 39.70% 40.20%
South Korea 6.90% 7.10% 4.40%
USA 43.80% 43.70% 46.30%
TrueCar also projects sales down to the brand level:
Manufacturer Oct. 2009 Change vs. Change vs.
Forecast Sept. 2009 Oct. 2008
BMW 19,918 3.90% -21.80%
BMW 15,492 3.00% -23.30%
MINI 4,426 7.20% -16.00%
Chrysler 62,975 1.30% -33.00%
Chrysler 9,248 2.20% -53.50%
Dodge 36,231 1.00% -31.40%
Jeep 17,496 1.20% -18.10%
Daimler 16,333 -8.20% -5.20%
Mercedes-Benz 15,047 -11.40% 0.30%
Smart 1,286 58.00% -42.50%
Ford 120,946 10.00% -3.40%
Ford 107,526 9.10% -3.20%
Lincoln 6,993 16.90% -5.50%
Mercury 6,427 18.10% -4.80%
GM 159,550 2.20% -4.30%
Buick 7,928 -16.20% 3.70%
Cadillac 11,632 2.60% 21.90%
Chevrolet 108,427 5.70% 1.80%
GMC 19,312 5.20% -3.80%
HUMMER 572 34.30% -58.20%
Pontiac 9,267 -16.40% -29.00%
Saturn 2,412 -19.40% -71.90%
Honda 86,407 11.90% 0.60%
Acura 9,515 31.10% -5.90%
Honda 76,892 9.90% 1.50%
Hyundai 32,569 3.40% 56.40%
Hyundai 32,569 3.40% 56.40%
Jaguar 3,045 -1.90% -6.20%
Jaguar 838 -2.50% -31.20%
Land Rover 2,207 -1.70% 8.90%
Kia 21,214 -1.90% 37.00%
Kia 21,214 -1.90% 37.00%
Mazda 15,788 10.90% -4.00%
Mazda 15,788 10.90% -4.00%
Mitsubishi 5,234 11.10% -30.10%
Mitsubishi 5,234 11.10% -30.10%
Nissan 54,379 -1.80% -4.50%
Infiniti 6,392 -3.30% -10.10%
Nissan 47,987 -1.60% -3.70%
Porsche 1,554 -1.70% 8.90%
Porsche 1,554 -1.70% 8.90%
Saab 549 13.50% -72.20%
Saab 549 13.50% -72.20%
Subaru 15,472 6.00% 19.80%
Subaru 15,472 6.00% 19.80%
Suzuki 1,912 2.70% -45.10%
Suzuki 1,912 2.70% -45.10%
Toyota 136,865 5.50% -10.00%
Lexus 17,392 -3.00% 6.80%
Scion 4,578 24.30% -32.10%
Toyota 114,895 6.30% -11.00%
Volkswagen 25,324 2.50% 8.50%
Audi 7,501 2.20% 0.80%
Volkswagen 17,823 2.70% 12.20%
Volvo 4,861 3.10% 30.80%
Volvo 4,861 3.10% 30.80%
Grand Total 784,897 4.60% -5.90%
TrueCar bases its forecast on actual transaction data that cover over 40% of all sales in the U.S. The transaction data-based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI). TrueCar does not adjust statistics for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations. The information contained in this forecast is for noncommercial, personal use on an "as-is, as available" basis and may be used for informational purposes only. TrueCar makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, with respect to the information contained herein and the results of the use of such information, including but not limited to implied warranty of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement. The information contained herein may include technical inaccuracies or typographical errors. Neither TrueCar nor any of its parents, subsidiaries, affiliates, or their respective partners, officers, directors, employees, or agents shall be held liable for any damages, whether direct, incidental, indirect, special, or consequential, including without limitation lost revenues or lost profits, arising from or in connection with your use or reliance on the information presented in this forecast.
About TrueCar
TrueCar (www.truecar.com) is the authority in new car pricing. TrueCar aggregates data from multiple sources to show car buyers and dealers how much people actually paid for a particular car in their geographic area. TrueCar is offered online, free of charge -- so anyone can know at any time what is considered a good or great price. Consumers no longer need to walk into the dealership only partially informed and fully suspicious: with TrueCar they can walk in knowing the price of a fair deal. Dealers also benefit by gaining real-time, unbiased information about marketplace pricing, helping them price their cars to increase volume of sales and gain market share from other dealers. Led by a highly experienced team from the automotive and technology industries, TrueCar is based in Santa Monica, California.
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